BCS Preview - Florida Gators

Since I know jack squat about college football, I've left it to the experts to break this game down into a fine powder. There will be two previews, one on Florida and one on the Ohio State University.

Here's my good buddy Erick Blasko's preview on the Gator side of the ball. It's an excellent read for any sports fan.

Many fans and media members are looking past this year’s BCS National Championship Game, assuming an Ohio State blowout is in order. Since Florida has a loss and hasn’t blown out the weaker teams on their schedule, the general consensus is that the team isn’t very good and doesn’t deserve to play for a title. However many of these people fail to appreciate the fact that Florida has played a much tougher schedule than any other team in the nation, so they know how to win close games against good teams. Florida also has a ton of playmakers on both sides of the ball, and a senior quarterback to lead the team. The Gators also have a ferocious defense which, unlike Michigan, is better on the field than on the stat sheet. And that defensive stat sheet is pretty good, with the Gators ranking 6th in scoring defense and rushing defense.

However, Ohio State is stacked all across the field. They have a Heisman Trophy winning quarterback in Troy Smith who has proven to be the best quarterback in college football. While Ted Ginn is a touch overrated, Anthony Gonzalez is the perfect compliment to Ginn’s speed and deep ball abilities. And Ohio State’s defense was phenomenal all season long, as they closed the regular season ranking 2nd in scoring defense.

The Buckeye’s earned their right to the National Championship game by going undefeated, winning the Big 10, and knocking off two number 2 ranked teams this season. Texas and Michigan were each ranked 2nd when they squared off against Ohio State, and each fell in games that were more one-sided than the final score indicates.

However, other than Texas, Michigan, and Penn State, the rest of the Buckeye schedule was painfully mediocre. When Ohio State beat Texas, Texas was their 2nd game into the season with a freshman quarterback. It’s very difficult to ask a true freshman to play well against a top-notch defense the 2nd game of his career. In Ohio State’s game against Michigan, the vaunted Buckeye defense got shredded by Mike Hart on the ground and Chad Henne through the air. And while Michigan’s defense is good, look how it fared the 2nd half of the Rose Bowl. Ohio State struggled mightily against Penn State’s defense until the 4th quarter, and nobody else on their schedule is worth mentioning. The Buckeye’s missed Wisconsin, and benefited from the fact that Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, Minnesota, Iowa, Michigan State, Bowling Green, and Northern Illinois fall between mediocre and horrible. The truth is, Ohio State’s offense struggled in games against Penn State and Texas, and their defense showed some weaknesses against Michigan. Nobody is questioning the fact the Buckeyes are number 1, but they aren’t the be-all, end-all powerhouse that will dominate any team just by showing up.

Florida played the toughest schedule in the nation. While Southern Miss isn’t on the level of most SEC teams, they were a division winner. Other than UCF, Western Carolina, and maybe Vanderbilt, there weren’t any patsies on Florida’s schedule to pad their stats with. At Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, LSU, at Auburn, neutral site vs. Georgia, at Vanderbilt, South Carolina, at Florida State, and the SEC Championship Game vs. Arkansas is a death march that few teams can survive unscathed. The only blemish on that march was a game at Auburn in which Eric Wilbur dropped a punt which was turned into a touchdown, and Chris Leak committed a controversial fumble. And of the wins, only Vanderbilt, which didn’t make a bowl, Arkansas, and Tennessee lost their bowl games. And LSU’s vaunted offense with the new flavor the month JaMarcus Russell was held to 7 points, while committing 5 turnovers against Florida. Many Gator detractors point towards a 6 point win vs. Vanderbilt, and the fact that Florida needed to block a field goal at the buzzer to beat South Carolina as proofs of Florida’s ranking as undeserved. The fact is that the Vanderbilt game was after facing LSU, Auburn, and Georgia in 3 straight games. There is no way for Florida to be up for the Vanderbilt game, after playing 3 straight games against two top-10 teams and a main rival. The South Carolina game featured the legendary coach, Steve Spurrier, returning to Gainesville. Spurrier was the only team to consistently run the ball on Florida and bled away possession after possession with a smart gameplan. Other than those two wins, no other win on Florida’s schedule can be debated.

When Ohio State has the ball, they have numerous ways to pick apart a defense, led of course, by Heisman winner Troy Smith. Smith didn’t make too many spectacular plays this year, but he has been brutally efficient. He has excellent accuracy, and does a fine job of placing his passes in areas where his receivers can make yards after the catch. Smith also has tremendous athleticism which he shows off while scrambling to make plays. Even against good pass rushes, Smith can buy time in the pocket with his mobility or scramble outside the pocket, always looking for big throws downfield. He usually scrambles as a last resort, and most of his rushing yards come via option runs, not scrambling.

The Buckeyes also have two very underrated running backs in Antonio Pittman and Chris Wells. Because of Smith, the running game for Ohio State tends to be underappreciated, but Wells and Pittman pace the offense. Both are big backs able to get tough yards, but both also have breakaway speed once they get into the secondary. Ohio State has two fantastic receivers in Ted Ginn and Anthony Gonzalez, with Smith being the big play guy, and Gonzales getting first down after first down underneath. Ohio State also has arguably, the best offensive line in the country giving the playmakers ample time to shine.

Florida’s defense will counter with their own playmakers on defense. Florida’s front four shuts down opposing rushing games, as teams average less than 3 yards a carry on them. Even the duo of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones broke off only one long run against the Gators. The difference is that Ohio State has a lethal passing attack rather than an adequate one. If Ohio State is able to run the ball consistently, then Smith will make big play after big play down the field. Florida has to make Ohio State one dimensional. The Gators front four is also excellent at generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks. While they don’t have too many sacks, the pressure results in rushed throws, poor throws, and interceptions. A key matchup will be whether Florida can generate pressure on Smith and force him to make careless throws into coverage. The Gators have a good linebacking corps with Earl Everett, Brandon Siler, and Brian Crum neutralizing opposing teams’ outside runs. The Gators also have a surprisingly disrespected secondary. Reggie Nelson is one of the best athletes in college football and has delivered numerous bone-crunching hits, as well as game turning interceptions this year. The Gators also have a Utah-transfer in Ryan Smith who picked off 8 passes this season. The weakness in Florida’s secondary is in their depth. Ohio State has many options at receiver and may want to spread the field and attack Florida’s lesser cornerbacks. The Gators’ regular secondary, however, is more than capable with hanging with the Buckeyes receiver.

Florida’s offense this year has hardly been a thing of beauty. Florida also has playmakers across the board, but the team constantly shoots itself in the foot with presnap penalties. If Florida decides to make it easy for Ohio State and back themselves up 5 yards, the Buckeyes will dominate the Gators. Florida’s offensive line has also been mediocre in pass protection. That’s a problem because Ohio State also has one of the best defensive lines in the nation with Quinn Pitcock leading the charge from nose tackle. It is unlikely that DeShawn Wynn will be bale to run the ball against the stout Buckeyes run defense, so Florida will look to throw the ball early and often. Florida’s passing game generally consists of shallow crossing routes, pick routes (referees should look out for those routes because their illegal), bubble screens, hitch routes, and the occasional go route. With Andre Caldwell, Dallas Baker, Jemalle Cornelius, and Cornelius Ingram, the Gators have ways to move the ball through the air against Ohio State. Florida also has Percy Harvin, a true freshman with electrifying talent. For Florida to win, they need to get the ball into the hands of those guys and let them create.

Unfortunately, Chris Leak has not had a great year this year. He has happy feat and doesn’t step into his throws against good defensive teams. Ohio State should feast on his poor mechanics. When Leak has time, he has an incredibly accurate deep ball, and can pick apart defenses with his big arm. It is a given that Ohio State will get pressure. The key is whether Leak can stand in and make tough throws with defenders in his face. Tim Tebow will also get playing time. While still raw as a passer, he is a physical runner with freakish athletic abilities. Just ask LaRon Landry, widely regarded as the best safety in the nation. Landry was dragged almost 15 yards by a Tebow run earlier this year. As a changeup, Tebow will come in to run sneaks for the Gators in short yardage, and also look to make big plays when the team needs a spark.

Neither team gets too big of an edge in coaching. Jim Tressel is a fantastic big game coach and has won games as an underdog and as a favorite. He’ll make sure Florida doesn’t block any kicks, and he’ll look to exploit Florida’s lack of depth in the secondary. Urban Meyer, meanwhile, is a prodigy quickly rising up the coaching ranks. He’s won at Bowling Green, Utah, and Florida, and has an impeccable resume. With all the injuries and offensive woes the Gators have suffered this year, it’s a testament to Meyer that the Gators are where they are. Since Ohio State doesn’t suffer illegal motion after illegal motion penalty, Tressel has to get the edge there.

What will happen? Florida will score a touchdown on their first drive and pick up a stop on Ohio State’s first drive to show that they belong in the game, and the Gator defensive speed will keep Ohio State from getting into a rhythm. Still, smith is so talented that he’ll be flawless on a few drives leading Ohio State to a couple of touchdowns. The Gators will keep a back in to help offset the Buckeye pass rush, and Florida will take a surprising amount of shots down the field in the first half, connecting on a few deep balls. Both quarterbacks will throw 2 interceptions, and Florida’s defense will be the unit that shines in the 4th quarter, snuffing out a few Troy Smith attempts at victory. Florida- 24 Ohio State- 20